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Research Details

UM05-03 - Understanding Global Aging

Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Hans Fehr

This proposal responds to SSA’s interest in global aging by developing a dynamic, general equilibrium, life-cycle simulation model of demographic change in the U.S., EU, Japan, China, and India. The model, a prototype of which exists, incorporates fertility reductions, lifespan extension, technical change, immigration, capital adjustment costs, international capital flows, earnings heterogeneity, and region-specific fiscal institutions. The model will study the impact of aging on wages, interest, inflation, and tax rates, regional stock values, capital accumulation, and trade. It will also study the micro- and macroeconomic effects of immigration, pre-funding, privatization, tax increases, increases in retirement ages, and benefit cuts.

Publications (PDF)

Brief:
Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner?—Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., E.U., Japan, and China
Working Paper:
Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner?—Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., E.U., Japan, and China