Key Findings Details
Subjective Survival Probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study: Systematic Biases and Predictive Validity
- Individual’s subjective survival forecasts show bias relative to life table data. Many fail to account for increases in yearly mortality rates with age.
- Recent cohorts of the elderly do not appear to revise survival forecasts to match increases in longevity.
- Despite these shortcomings, subjective survival probabilities predict actual mortality and portfolio choice.