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Key Findings Details

Earnings Growth versus Measures of Income and Education for Predicting Mortality
Harriet Duleep and David A. Jaeger
WP 2011-257

  • Earnings growth, measured over the entire career of individuals, appears to supersede income’s effect as a predictor of mortality.
  • Both education and earnings growth are useful for predicting mortality.
  • Earnings growth measured at the beginning of the working career appears to be a viable predictor of subsequent mortality.
  • The final result is of particular use in forecasting models that rely only on Social Security’s administrative record data since the administrative record data lack information on years of schooling.