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Francisco Perez-Arce, Maria Prados, Erik Meijer, and Jinkook Lee

 We will analyze the population covered by social security programs in China, India and Mexico using surveys in the HRS family. We will answer the following questions:

1) Who is covered by social security programs? We will study the coverage rate of social security programs for the entire population and relevant subgroups, and present likely determinants and correlates of coverage.
2) How are changing labor markets affecting social security coverage? To better understand the contributions of past societal changes, we will estimate regression models of coverage as function of demographic and employment variables.
3) How will projected or possible changes in labor force participation affect coverage? We will analyze trends within the data (across birth cohorts) to obtain forecasts of social security coverage in the medium-term future, in the absence of policy changes. The model will evaluate “what if” scenarios related to projected or possible changes in the labor market.

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