2001

Eligibility for Social Security Disability Insurance

WP 2001-011, UM00-06

In order to understand whom among the non-disabled older population experiences a health problem later in life and applies for Social Security Disability Insurance, it is necessary to investigate patterns of coverage and reasons for non-coverage. This paper shows that…

Stochastic Rates of Return for Social Security Under Various Policy Scenarios

WP 2001-010, UM00-03

In this paper, we compute distributions of rates of return by cohort for the Social Security retirement system, using a combination of historical data and stochastic forecasts of productivity and mortality rates. Since our forecasts of productivity and mortality are…

Tracking the Household Income of SSDI and SSI Applicants

WP 2001-009, UM99-03

Using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation linked to Social Security Administration disability determination records we trace the pattern of household income and the sources of that income from 38 months prior to 39 months following…

Chances are…Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund and Attempts to Save It

WP 2001-008, UM99-07

We present forecasts of the Social Security trust fund, modeling key demographic and economic variables as time series. We evaluate plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the…

Cognition and Wealth: The Importance of Probabilistic Thinking

WP 2001-007, UM00-04

This paper utilizes a large set of subjective probability questions from the Health and Retirement Survey to construct an index measuring the precision of probabilistic beliefs (PPB) and relates this index to household choices about the riskiness of their portfolios…

2000

Retirement Responses to Early Social Security Benefit Reductions

WP 2000-006, UM99-01

This paper evaluates potential responses to reductions in early Social Security retirement benefits. Using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to administrative records, we find that Social Security coverage is quite uneven in the older population: one-quarter of respondents…

How Effective is Redistribution Under the Social Security Benefit Formula?

WP 2000-005, UM99-04

This paper uses earnings histories from the Social Security Administration, linked to the survey responses for participants in the Health and Retirement Study, to investigate redistribution under the current social security benefit formula. As advertised, own benefits are significantly redistributed…

Saving for Retirement: Household Bargaining and Household Net Worth

WP 2000-004, UM00-02

Traditional economic models treat the household as a single individual, and do not allow for separate preferences of and possible conflicts of interest between husbands and wives. Since wives are typically younger than their husbands and life expectancy for women…

Marriage, Divorce and the Work and Earning Careers of Spouses

WP 2000-003, UM99-06

Social Security benefits depend on the employment and earnings history of the covered worker, but, especially for women, they depend on one’s marital history and the employment and earnings history of one’s spouse. This paper examines the interrelationship between marriage,…

Retirement and Wealth

WP 2000-002, UM99-02

This paper analyzes the relationship between retirement and wealth. In a simple model where the only heterogeneity is in leisure preference, other things the same, those who retire early accumulate more wealth while still working, enabling them to support themselves…