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The Effect of Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion on Post-Displacement Labor Supply among the Near-Elderly 
WP 2017-370
Chichun Fang 

  • During the few months immediately following a state’s Medicaid expansion, displaced workers in that state had a lower likelihood of unemployment exits to employment. That is, some displaced workers who benefited from Medicaid expansion spent a longer time in the job search.
  • During the few months immediately following a state’s Medicaid expansion, displaced workers in that state also had a higher likelihood of unemployment exits to not-in-labor-force. That is, some displaced workers stopped their job search and quit working.
  • Robustness tests suggest that part of the above effects may be attributed to state-level idiosyncrasies. Nevertheless, these results reject large and persistent effect of ACA Medicaid expansion on labor supply among near-elderly, displaced workers in my sample.
  • There is no effect on longer-term re-employment outcomes, including the likelihood of re-employment and re-employment earnings, between expansion and nonexpansion states. However, the sample size used in the analysis of longer-term outcomes was quite small, which limited the statistical inference that I can make.
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